NOAA predicts very active hurricane season, issues highest ever May forecast (2024)
Jeff Berardelli is WFLA’s Chief Meteorologist and Climate Specialist
TAMPA, Fla. (WFLA) — NOAA released its annual forecast for the 2024 hurricane season on Thursday and predicted a very active season is in store for the tropical Atlantic.
This season has an 85% chance of being above average. In an average season, there are 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three majors.
By the numbers, NOAA is forecasting between 17 and 25 named storms, eight to 13 hurricanes and four to seven major hurricanes (Category 3 and up) for 2024. It is the highest number of named storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes NOAA has ever issued for its May outlook.
While NOAA can’t say exactly when and where storms will strike, the historic record shows that in very active seasons like we are expecting in 2024, more storms tend to landfall in the US.
NOAA joins other agencies and universities raising alarms for an active season like Colorado State University calling for named 23 storms, the European’s (ECMWF) also calling for 23 storms and the UK Meteorology Service calling for 22.
NOAA’s reasoning for the big forecast is two-fold. Record hot water temperatures in the Tropical Atlantic Ocean and also the demise of El Niño – and likely formation of La Niña by summer – both natural climate cycles.
Right now sea surface temperatures are not only the record hottest overall in the Atlantic, but they are also record hot in each individual basin, including the central Tropical Atlantic, the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico, partly due to global warming.
This will likely result in storms that get stronger due to the excess high octane fuel available. That means we can expect more hurricanes and more major hurricanes than we saw last year – despite 2023 featuring numerous storms, but many weaker systems.
The 2nd most important factor in our upcoming hurricane season is the rapid shift away from El Niño in the Pacific right now.
When El Niño fades and Pacific waters cool, the Atlantic becomes the more favorable basin for development. In addition a fading El Niño means that wind shear across the western side of the Atlantic basin should be below normal. For both of these reasons, it should be a busy hurricane season.
With the expectation of La Niña forming this summer, the below graphic shows that La Niña years tend to have many more hurricanes than El Niño – almost double – over the last 40 years. Also notice how during El Niño, which was present during last year’s hurricane season, there are no storms in the western Gulf. But in La Niña, the entire Gulf becomes more active.
It’s not only overall number, it’s also the chance of landfalls close to home that goes up once El Niño fades. In the below graphic from Steve Bowen of Gallagher Re you can see Neutral (years with neither phase) and La Niña’s produce about double the number of US landfalls as compared to El Niño – and a lot more economic loses too.
It’s worth mentioning that last hurricane season, the average storm track was near Bermuda, with most storms avoiding landfall in the U.S. That was well forecast by the spring computer models. This year, those same models show a storm track into the Caribbean and also near Florida. While it’s hard to say for certain, the models are probably onto something.
With that said, contrary to the active forecasts for the upcoming season, so far the Atlantic Basin has not seen a named storm. That is rare for the past 20 years in which we have seen 17 preseason storms form. Unfortunately, a quiet early season does not mean a quiet peak season. They are independent of each other.
So when will the Atlantic heat up? As a favorable large scale climate pattern evolves in early June, the Atlantic should wake up; most likely somewhere in the Caribbean or near the Bahamas. If so, that would be nearby where storms tend to form in June – close to home – as we say.
Bottom line: You never know when or where a storm will strike ahead of the season. But with a hyperactive season forecast, it is better to be safe than sorry. Plan and prepare early.
Multiple officials, including National Hurricane Center
National Hurricane Center
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is the division of the United States' NOAA/National Weather Service responsible for tracking and predicting tropical weather systems between the Prime Meridian and the 140th meridian west poleward to the 30th parallel north in the northeast Pacific Ocean and the 31st parallel north ...
https://en.wikipedia.org › wiki › National_Hurricane_Center
Director Michael Brennan and National Weather Service Director Ken Graham, described the 2024 Hurricane Outlook as the "highest" forecast ever issued in May. A major hurricane is Category 3, 4 or 5, with winds of 111 mph or higher.
It forecasts a range of 17 to 25 total named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). Of those, 8 to 13 are forecast to become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 4 to 7 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher).
NOAA predicts very active hurricane season for 2024, issues highest-ever early season outlook. La Niña and near record warm ocean temperatures will increase storm activity.
NOAA predicts above-normal 2024 Atlantic hurricane season
The agency anticipates between 17-25 named storms will form, with 8-13 becoming hurricanes with winds of at least 74 mph. Out of those 8-13, 4 to 7 could become major with winds of at least 115 mph.
The number of predicted storms is the “highest NOAA has ever issued for the May outlook,” said NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad in a press conference. The highest number of major hurricanes ever recorded in an Atlantic hurricane season is seven, which occurred in both 2005 and 2020.
On December 11, 2023, Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) released its extended range forecast for the 2024 season, predicting an above-average season with 20 named storms, 9 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes.
Between 17 and 25 named storms (storms with winds of at least 39 mph). Between 8 and 13 of these will be hurricanes (storms with winds of at least 79 mph). Between 4 and 7 of these will be major hurricanes (categories 3, 4 and 5 storms).
We estimate that 2024 will have 23 named storms (average is 14.4), 115 named storm days (average is 69.4), 11 hurricanes (average is 7.2), 45 hurricane days (average is 27.0), 5 major (Category 3-4-5) hurricanes (average is 3.2) and 13 major hurricane days (average is 7.4).
NOAA and CSU were accurate in predicting major hurricanes, of which the Atlantic Basin saw four. But 2022 was a calmer year in the Gulf, on the low end of both organizations' predictions. And 2023 saw slightly more activity than predicted.
The Galveston Hurricane of August 1900 was the deadliest hurricane in United States history, according to NOAA, causing tremendous destruction and loss of life. An estimated 8,000 to 12,000 people died in the storm, making it the deadliest natural disaster in U.S. history.
Whenever a tropical cyclone (a tropical depression, tropical storm, or hurricane) or a subtropical storm has formed in the Atlantic or eastern North Pacific, the NOAA National Hurricane Center (NHC) issues tropical cyclone advisory products at least every 6 hours at 5 am, 11 am, 5 pm, and 11 pm EDT.
The official hurricane season for the Atlantic basin is from June 1 to November 30, but tropical cyclone activity sometimes occurs before and after these dates, respectively. The peak of the Atlantic hurricane season is September 10, with most activity occurring between mid-August and mid-October.
The Labor Day Hurricane (1935) produced the worst U.S. impacts. The Labor Day hurricane of 1935 is the only cyclone on the list that impacted the U.S. during its peak intensity. A NOAA reanalysis of the cyclone found that it had maximum sustained winds of 185 mph when it made landfall in the central Florida Keys.
Is there such a thing as a category 6 hurricane? No. Presently, on the Saffir-Simpson scale, there is no upper bound for category 5. Any hurricane with sustained winds of 137 knots (157 mph) or higher is classified as category 5, no matter how much higher the winds might be.
NOAA's outlook for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, which spans from June 1 to November 30, predicts an 85% chance of an above-normal season, a 10% chance of a near-normal season and a 5% chance of a below-normal season.
NOAA, which houses the National Weather Service and the National Hurricane Center, predicts there is an 85% chance the 2024 season will be “above normal,” thanks to near-record-high ocean temperatures and the onset of La Niña.
Scientists can usually predict its path for 3-5 days in advance. A hurricane's possible trajectory is usually represented as a cone, which shrinks over time as the error in the prediction decreases. To predict the path of these storms, meteorologists can use many different models.
Whenever a tropical cyclone (a tropical depression, tropical storm, or hurricane) or a subtropical storm has formed in the Atlantic or eastern North Pacific, the NOAA National Hurricane Center (NHC) issues tropical cyclone advisory products at least every 6 hours at 5 am, 11 am, 5 pm, and 11 pm EDT.
Introduction: My name is Errol Quitzon, I am a fair, cute, fancy, clean, attractive, sparkling, kind person who loves writing and wants to share my knowledge and understanding with you.
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