The remarkable turnaround by the Samajwadi Party-Congress alliance in Uttar Pradesh, where they won 43 of the 80 seats, was not just sheer coincidence but was down to a host of factors like ticket distribution, PDA (pichada, Dalits, alpsahkhyaks or minorities) outreach, and anger among the Rajput community.
Akhilesh Yadav's Samajwadi Party emerged as the single-largest party in Uttar Pradesh, winning 37 seats, up from the five it won in 2019. It played a key role in reducing the ruling BJP's tally to 33 seats from the 62 it won in the 2019 polls. It also prevented the BJP from reaching the majority mark of 272 on its own.
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The Congress, which won just a solitary seat in 2019, bagged six seats this time, while Mayawati's BSP failed to open its account this time.
But, what led to the churn in the Uttar Pradesh political scenario? We explain the development in five graphics.
UTTAR PRADESH RESULTS 2024: REGION-WISE ANALYSIS
A region-wise analysis shows that the Samajwadi Party secured gains in the western, central and eastern parts of the state. Interestingly, the party also won three seats in Bundelkhand, which was dominated by the BJP in the 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha elections.
The Samajwadi Party gained the maximum number of seats in eastern UP at 18, followed by six seats in the Jat-dominated western belt. The BJP's decline in eastern UP is surprising since Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath represent Varanasi and Gorakhpur, both of which fall in the eastern region.
The Congress also gained two seats in the eastern region, while the BJP was pegged back by 13 seats. The BJP won 28 seats and 24 seats out of the total 32 in eastern Uttar Pradesh in 2014 and 2019 respectively.
The INDIA bloc also made massive gains in the politically sensitive western region, gaining seven seats. The BJP, on the other hand, lost six seats despite getting Jayant Chaudhary's Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) on board.
In this region, out of the 26 seats, the NDA has won only 13 seats. In 2019, its tally was 18. In the first phase, the INDIA bloc nearly swept all the seats, winning five of the eight. The NDA got only two seats.
The trouble signs for the BJP were visible ahead of the polls due to a rebellion by Rajputs who have traditionally voted for the saffron party.
The anger among the Rajputs, who constitute around 10-13% of the state population, had been simmering for some time as the community perceived that it was being sidelined within the BJP. The anger compounded as they were sidelined in ticket distribution at the expense of Gurjars and Jats.
In fact, the BJP fielded only one Rajput candidate, Kunwar Sarvesh Singh, in the eight constituencies that voted in the first phase. Singh, however, died a day after the polls. The remaining eight constituencies in the western belt saw no Rajput representation by the BJP.
TICKET DISTRIBUTION STRATEGY
Another major factor that worked in favour of the Samajwadi Party was its ticket distribution strategy as per a well-crafted social engineering plan.
This time, the SP gave most tickets to non-Yadav OBCs and Dalits, resulting in the party's best ever performance in a Lok Sabha election. Till now, the SP's best performance was in 2004, when it won 35 seats.
Akhilesh Yadav gave tickets to only five Yadavs and four Muslims. Last time, it had fielded 10 Yadavs. This time, the party fielded 27 candidates belonging to non-Yadav OBCs.
The 'PDA' strategy paid good dividends to the party as it gained 25 seats in OBC-reserved constituencies. It also gained six seats in Muslim-dominated constituencies.
Akhilesh Yadav's party, which shed the tag of being a MY (Muslim+Yadav) party, virtually swept the seats in the Purvanchal region, where non-Yadav OBCs and Dalits form a major chunk of the electorate.
The SP's decision to field Dalits from Meerut and Faizabad (Ayodhya) too worked wonders for the party. What took all by surprise was the BJP candidate Lallu Singh's loss to Samajwadi Party's Awadhesh Prasad in Faizabad, which houses the newly inaugurated Ram temple.
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The Congress too won four seats in seats dominated by OBCs.
On the other hand, the BJP, which gave maximum tickets to upper castes, lost 23 seats in constituencies dominated by OBCs. It also suffered losses in Brahmin-dominated and Muslim-dominated seats.
Published By:
Abhishek De
Published On:
Jun 5, 2024
